华泰证券指出,中东紧张局势骤然升级,或引发原油、天然气、丙烷、甲醇、尿素等多种能源化工品供应风险。霍尔木兹海峡短期运输受阻风险或显著提升,25年通过该海峡出口的商品运输量在全球份额的占比高的分别为化肥33%、甲醇32%、原油及凝析油31%、NGLs(包括乙烷、丙烷、丁烷等)23%、LNG 19%及矿石(17%),相关产品价格中枢或抬升。考虑原油地缘溢价、全球供需格局及OPEC+闲置产能,上调26年Brent均价预测为70美元/桶(前值65美元/桶)。油气开采、煤化工、炼化行业均有望受益。
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